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Jul-31-2007 07:23

Surely someone else than me must've noticed that if one suspect easily clams they all do, and the townspeople don't and vice versa. And so on and so forth. I assume it's got something to do with the "same thing behind door 2" rule, no? It's useful to me in that I use my questions more economically when I notice what pattern the current case follows. Any thoughts on this?

Aug-3-2007 02:23

Hi Jim,

I'm sorry you're feeling persecuted. You have to excuse us oversensitives types :)

I think why people are upset is because they've played the game for ages and have seen this all before. And because they often have nearly all, if not all of the skills plus the best equipment AND eons of experience they realise that while there ARE patterns from time to time, it IS random and eventually those patterns don't stand up. Meanwhile, you're implying that all that counts for nothing and they're wrong. And I know we shouldn't be so sensitive to that! :)

However, that said, I know a lot of detectives that will use patterns or such as a guide.. or will use certain superstitions they've come up with as a guide.

The problem is, the game IS random. Now, I don't know about the Chaos Theory... (and I may be thinking of something else) but I thought that the Chaos Theory was only applicable to large numbers.. that is only worked because if you have infinate numbers/happenings/events it would be impossible NOT to see a pattern or a trend to chaos.

Once again, I think that is why people are having trouble understanding.
First, (And plase take no offense) perhaps you haven't done enough cases to see a legimate claims. Statistics are only as accurate as the numbers involved. The greater the test sample the more accuarate.

But none of that really matters. What does matter is that Newbies are told, not to worry about the Crime Scene or most of the twists, not to just their instincts are accuse willynilly but to only accuse IF the people follow the formula.

I think posts like this and looking for patterns just confused some people.

I understand what you're trying to do and I think it's really interesting... perhaps you could show me the results now of your findings and then again after 1000 cases and so on.
I think finding patterns is cool too and I love statistics :)

My favourite part of watching cricket most times is actually when they show things like the Worm, the Wagon Wheel, the Skyscraper and all the play statistics as well as t

Aug-3-2007 02:23

he field statistics. I love all that.

I also love that Numbers programme on telly but that might be just because I think that older brother is a hottie! Heh.

Aug-3-2007 02:25

(And I meant a trend to order not a trend to chaos heh. My dumb.)

Aug-3-2007 03:51

Some of you remind me of the witch burners of old ("we don't understand what this person's on about and it scares us so let's kill them")

Ok, i think you're exaggerating just slightly, no one is trying to crucify you :)

Leddie is right, the community's reaction to this is probably for every reason she just stated.

And to answer your question, Jim, its not EXACT, but there are a certain number of questions you have at the beginning of each case within one or two. ie. for an Incredibly Hard case, you either get 1 or 0. Your skill chance is what determines how many (if any) questions you get after clamming occurs.

Aug-3-2007 05:27

Jim, you're wasting your time on this. A more productive thing would be to go to Shanghai and figure out which horse is going to win. when you get that pattern, please PM me. :)

Aug-4-2007 03:39

No matter. Treschaude PMd me the answer I was looking for and I'm doing some stats on my own (with an extra test detective). I will indeed post what I come up with, even if it's a dead end. I am *certainly not* saying I'm right and you're all wrong. This because we're not even talking about the same thing. I will not speculate whether that comes from the fact that you are all hopelessly daft, *or* the fact that English isn't my native language and my vocabulary is limited. ;P

Sophie4.. you don't know who you're asking. Just because it's so totally crazy I feel an urge to actually check that out. I will start on the horses after I'm done with this. ;D

Aug-4-2007 04:30

I have a few Sleuth superstitions of my own. I'm sure they are just random chaos and just happen as often as I think they do simply because of the number of cases I have done. I'm not a statistics person. If you find a way to win on the ponies, let me know!

Aug-4-2007 05:49

sorry run it by me why we can't burn people at the stake again...? :D

Aug-4-2007 07:20

Hehe. Well, this I'm going after here ain't superstition, since I'm trying to verify it using statistics and maths. In this case it's called a "theory". ;P

Sure I'll let ya'll know when I've tried to figure out the ponies. :)

Aug-4-2007 10:08

SS, because burning people at the stake is BAAAAD.

Besides, drawing and quartering them is MUCH more fun!

*breathlessly awaits Jim's Day at the Races*