

10 guilty clients...

tollo
Old Shoe

Jul292005 08:15
Oh my, I shouldn´t have gotten out of bed today. Well, I did and maybe on the wrong foot. But hey, it was 4.30 when the phone rang, so what would you expect.. Anyway, I took the case, but that stupid client who woke me up, was guilty. I know, I know, should´ve gone back to bed, but no no, not me.. I went to work, and there was next waiting. I took that, and after spending a LOT of money bribing townies, I didn´t get my reward... At lunch time I had solved 5 Incredibly Hard cases, and what did I get?
Nothing!
So I went to the Bar and took a couple of drinks.. well 5 actually, one for every case.
After "lunch" I took a little easier cases and what did I get this time...? NOTHING!
( At least townies gave me rewards)
I´m going back to the bar and have another 5 drinks.
Just thinking, do they think I´m stupid or something, when they hire a detective knowing well that they´re guilty....
Now my question is: has this happened to someone else?
Just curious.
(and sorry if this on the wrong board)

Replies 
Cicero
WellConnected

Aug12005 23:43
Ha! I bet your the kind of guy who would go to vegas and hit on 16 because you've got a good feeling...
Winning at the track is almost entirely based on statistics. The odds tell you what to expect. For every 100 races that three legged tom runs he is expected to win once over the long run. Unfortunately the long run in statistics is something that most of us will never see.
Besides I never mentioned alibi's in the other equation because they didn't matter. If you look at any case regardless of alibi's you have that number of suspects and one of them has to be guilty. You have just as much chance for the 1st person on your suspect list to be quilty as the last. Your confusing evidence and methodology with statistics.

cfm
Nomad

Aug22005 01:00
*grins at Cicero*

ichiban
WellConnected

Aug22005 04:33
So to begin with you don't know how many suspect are in the case some times you start with one other times you get 34. And then the times when you don't have enough skill and you can't even find out how many suspect there are in the case??So how do you figure odds without knowing how many suspects??Some suspects get eliminated before you even know how many total suspects so if you don't know how many suspect total when case starts how do you figure then??
And if you think winning at the track is almost entirely based on odds you haven't been to the track!!Three Legged Tom he has won total of 1 race. So about how many races has there been give or take says 50(he has been in all)??

L&G

Aug22005 05:00
Today at 6am is race #500

Greyling

Aug22005 05:56
Since each level has a fixed number of suspects, determining the odds should be relatively easy ;)
Race #500, and Tom has only won once. Hmmm, doesn't seem like the pay out will cover the loss on that one :D

reda
WellConnected

Aug22005 07:51
Ichiban you are confusing your method with the statistics. what cicero is trying to say has nothing to do with how many will clam or get eliminated etc...
He's just saying that in each case they will always be one guilty.
If the case has 6 suspects the chance is 1 out of 6. If it has 7 its one out of 7 etc... etc... This has nothing to do with you solving it and what way you use to do that.
So since Beginner cases have less suspects the chances that your client will be guilty are higher than cases with more suspects.
Sounds pretty logical to me (after cicero explained it lol).

Autumnsprings
Con Artist

Aug22005 08:15
*nods* yep sounds good to me!

ichiban
WellConnected

Aug22005 17:53
Not that it matters but all I am saying is that the stats. are not matching your odds. Like three legged Tom 100to1 odds but in 500 races only one win. Yet still the odds for next race don't change right or wrong??

Madame Giry

Aug22005 19:31
Madame Giry confused! Heading for mental breakdown... and she's there.

Cicero
WellConnected

Aug22005 20:20
Ichiban I really don't think your going to get it, so this will be my last post on the subject.
Earlier I mentioned statistical averages really playing out "in the long run" which I also mentioned was "something most of us will never see" Think in numbers a lot larger than 500. Try oh, a million, maybe 10 million trials before the true statistical average can be shown. So in January 11017 (my approximate calculation on when the 1000000th race will be run) I promise that the number of races that three legged tom would've one (assuming he hasn't retired) would be about once in every 100 races.
Everyone else please feel free to laugh at me for actually trying to figure that out...

