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May-7-2005 22:24

Who do I talk to if I believe I solved the case right according to all the clues but it said I falsely accused? All the clues pointed to certain people yet I was told I was wrong. This included one that said they knew who the murderer was but said they had no reason to suspect the "real" murderer.
Any help would be great, thanks in advance.

Miss Jazzabelle

May-8-2005 03:03

I have also accused a wrong suspect just today. I had one female suspect who clammed up when I asked for her alibi. There was a threatening letter that pointed at her. One person also suspected her. However, no other people suspected her when I asked, and some clammed up.

There was another male suspect. He also clammed up when I asked for his alibi. There was a bloody footprint that pointed at him. However, almost all people clammed up at that point and didn't want to accuse him.

There were 3 physical evidence in that case. Another one was another footprint which referred to no suspect.

So, there was this female suspect that had one physical evidence and one witness evidence. There was only 2/9 chance that those evidences might be wrong. (2/3x1/3) However, most people (except for those who clammed) didn't suspect her.

Another man had only one physical evidence. The chance that the evidence might be wrong was 3/9 (or 1/3). No witness evidence since most of them clammed up already.

The odds was in the woman's favour (or you could also say, against her.) There was less chance of her to be the wrong suspect. However, my gut feeling told me she was innocent.

I accused the woman, based on the odds calculated logically.

I was wrong.

She had an alibi, the barber, but she didn't told me that.

Combined with an earlier false accusation I made at the beginning of my career, I had to pay the shady guy about $6,000 for that.

I should remember the Murphy's Law "If anything has even a slightest chance to go wrong, it will"

Next time I'll go with my gut feeling.

May-8-2005 03:43

Or you can take the more conservative route, that if you have to guess, its better to quit.

May-8-2005 07:44

Keep in mind that....

Guilty = 1PE + Fake or "none of your business alibi"

Guilty = 1WE + Fake of "none of your business alibi"

Guilty = 2 WE

(PE = Physical Evidence WE = Witness Evidence)

If you do not have one of the above, the best you can do is an educated guess, which leaves you open to the possibility of a False Accusation....

(note: 1PE +1 WE = A GUESS not guilty)

May-8-2005 09:56

cfm, just to warn you that the last one, 2 EW, doesn't mean guilty. I had two cases already where I had 2 EW and the evidence pointed differently. The killer was not the one where the witnesses pointed. FYI.

Dark Raven.

May-8-2005 10:24

Really!? I've never had a case that does that. In my experience, any suspect that has two witness evidence has always turned out to be the murderer!

May-8-2005 10:33

*sigh*

There has been contention over this issue before...

*pulls up a chair and begins digging through the newbie thread, searching, page by page, for Ben's last comments on the matter some months ago*

May-8-2005 11:42

hehe - good luck with that cfm!

May-8-2005 19:52

It's here somewhere...I know it is...

*collapses on the pile of papers before her*

May-9-2005 03:09

Moving this to newbies.

May-9-2005 11:04

A word of wisdom from Dogberta once again. Just less than a week from my last thread ("The Easies Hard Case Ever", in the Sleuth Talk forum) which I took risks, and success.

Yes, the smartest way is quitting rather than guessing. However, it might be just me but I really hate quitting. Many people think "better let a hundred guilty person go rather than accusing an innocent one" and I understand and respect that idea. However, "if the detective gives up, the case will still be a mystery" is exactly what I always think. When you're down to two suspects, you're only this close to catching the murderer and deliver justice.

Of course, wrong accusation is always a severe, and maybe unforgivable, mistake. However,it's not like we're conducting an extrajuridical execution here. In that case, a wrong accusation means an innocent life lost. Even in a juridical system, wrong accusation leads to imprisonment (at worst, death.) However, we're private detectives; we can only accuse people and make them confess. If you accuse a wrong person, you're the one who'll be punished, not the accused. Okay, they might lose some credit, however, in the end it's the accuser who really lose - both his respect and money, and probably his career as a private detective.

Since justice is served when I guess right, and only one person (me) is punished when I guess wrong, that's why I usually take risks.

Another reason, although less noble and morally unrelated, is that I'm not subscribing. Every case is important to me to earn me a favor, which results in a gift more valueable than a day's jobs combined, or more importantly a contact. That's why I rarely quit - only when there are more than two suspects and I can't decide who is more likely to be a murderer.

Of course, as the shady's price grows, I may have to stop doing this...