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One Day Villain Hunts
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Riza Hawkeye
First Nomad
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Jun-16-2009 08:48
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Joseph Zeo
Tale Spinner
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Jun-20-2009 15:16
In theory, it takes a minimum of 4 rounds to travel to all cites with a travel kit (1+2+1), and at least 8 rounds to solve them all (minimum 2 clues per city). 4+8 = 12 rounds. So yeah, in theory it is possible, but the probability of that happening?
1) Probability of getting the shortest travel route: 4/24=[1/6]
2) Probability of getting the townie solvable within two clues: NY: 2/10 x LN: 2/10 x DH: 2/10 x SH: 2/10 = [1/625]
3) Probability of getting the right clues for the two-clue solvable townie with 2 clues: random = unknown
Even with only the first two criteria, we're looking at [1/6] x [1/625] = [1/3750].
That one chance in 3750 trials (0.027%), baby!
I wonder who will hit the jackpot first....
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Anais Nin
Thespian
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Jun-20-2009 20:31
Well one has better odds of a one day hunt than being struck by lightning then... Or maybe not, depending on variable #3.
Did you know there is a 1/12,000 chance of finding a pearl in an oyster you are eating?
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Joseph Zeo
Tale Spinner
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Jun-21-2009 08:30
Well in that perspective I guess we still have a chance to do VH within a day....
I see that you can usually get 4 hints for those townies solvable within two clues. So the probability should be 2/4 or 1/2 if they do not repeat themselves, but then, they do. Let's say there's a 50% chance that they do repeat, that gives you 1/4 chance of finding the townie within 2 clues. Multiple that number with 1/3750 = 1/15,000.
1/15,000. I think that's a fair estimation. In that case, I should start looking for that pearl in the oysters I eat :-)
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