

One Day Villain Hunts

Riza Hawkeye
First Nomad

Jun162009 08:48

Replies 
Lady Jas
The Chosen One

Jun162009 18:05
I don't recall anyone ever getting one day either...though I could be wrong, its hard to remember that far back. I suppose one could go through the "Arch Villian Captured" list and start with the very first one captured to see, but thats too much time for me. LOL

Breitkat
Pinball Amateur

Jun172009 00:12
It is theoretically possible, but I've never heard of it happening yet (and I strongly suspect the person who performed that miracle would be shouting their news from every rooftop in Sleuthville ;). The people who'd prob'ly be most likely to pull it off, to my mind, anyway, are Evelyn Gardner and Turtledove. If either of them haven't done it yet, it's prob'ly safe to say it's not going to get done for a while yet. ;)

Joseph Zeo
Tale Spinner

Jun202009 15:16
In theory, it takes a minimum of 4 rounds to travel to all cites with a travel kit (1+2+1), and at least 8 rounds to solve them all (minimum 2 clues per city). 4+8 = 12 rounds. So yeah, in theory it is possible, but the probability of that happening?
1) Probability of getting the shortest travel route: 4/24=[1/6]
2) Probability of getting the townie solvable within two clues: NY: 2/10 x LN: 2/10 x DH: 2/10 x SH: 2/10 = [1/625]
3) Probability of getting the right clues for the twoclue solvable townie with 2 clues: random = unknown
Even with only the first two criteria, we're looking at [1/6] x [1/625] = [1/3750].
That one chance in 3750 trials (0.027%), baby!
I wonder who will hit the jackpot first....

Anais Nin
Thespian

Jun202009 20:31
Well one has better odds of a one day hunt than being struck by lightning then... Or maybe not, depending on variable #3.
Did you know there is a 1/12,000 chance of finding a pearl in an oyster you are eating?

Joseph Zeo
Tale Spinner

Jun212009 08:30
Well in that perspective I guess we still have a chance to do VH within a day....
I see that you can usually get 4 hints for those townies solvable within two clues. So the probability should be 2/4 or 1/2 if they do not repeat themselves, but then, they do. Let's say there's a 50% chance that they do repeat, that gives you 1/4 chance of finding the townie within 2 clues. Multiple that number with 1/3750 = 1/15,000.
1/15,000. I think that's a fair estimation. In that case, I should start looking for that pearl in the oysters I eat :)

