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AV Hunt Question - possible spoilers?
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YAHTZEE
YAHTZEE
Well-Connected

Dec-8-2007 05:55

Hi there,

I don't know if I'm spoiling the AVH process, but I was wondering if a clue along the lines of ".... is NOT the Waitress" or the clues like "southof detective shop" when the shop is already high up on the map are used only as 'tie' breakers'?

i.e. Everytime I've gotten one of those clues, its been the other townsperson who shares the same set of traits (i.e. north, east, female, river - "not the waitress" would have been the tiebreaker).

I'm thinking that the game generates that hint only when necessary (like it should be the final hint to help you distinguish), but if you get it as a first clue, then can you use it to figure out your cospirator immediately?

To any mods / admins, feel free to edit my post if it contains too much information pertaining to AVH hunts.

Thanks to any repliers in advance!

Replies

Secret_Squirrel
Secret_Squirrel
Safety Officer

Mar-24-2008 16:34

^ agrees. In this instance you can't rely on that 'not the...' clue singling out someone for you.

Vampiric Smile
Vampiric Smile
Safety Officer

Mar-25-2008 01:20

The posibility to be the Missionary is exactly 95%. Normally 95% is statistically significant.
It is up to you to take the risk but remember that a failed VH will always be in your CV

Breitkat
Breitkat
Pinball Amateur

Mar-25-2008 01:41

How, exactly, you came up with that statistic, I'm somewhat confused about, but whatever. There are several possibilities that can have that clue, the Missionary being only one of them.

Vampiric Smile
Vampiric Smile
Safety Officer

Mar-25-2008 10:03

Scenario 1
The ‘is not the holy man’ info is given because it is substituting a coordination that can’t be used. This scenario (mathematically) is leading (much space is needed for explanation and may be boring for those who are not interested) 100% to the Missionary.
Scenario 2
The ‘is not the holy man’ info is given because it is substituting a coordination that can be used but it is not given. This scenario (mathematically) is leading 50% to the Missionary and 50% to the Bartender.
Scenario 3
The ‘is not the holy man’ info is given as an Add on info that is not actually needed! Unfortunately this is really a bad scenario which can lead to anybody else

Mathematically a projection of all scenarios will give.
Missionary 95%
Bartender 2%
Anybody else less than 0.5%


Breitkat
Breitkat
Pinball Amateur

Mar-25-2008 13:31

I'm sorry, Smile, but your math is still off.

ctown28
ctown28
Tireless Tiger

Mar-25-2008 14:45

I agree with Breit, you are over analyzing things here. Look at it this way, If you flip a coin 9 times and it comes up heads every time, what are the chances it will come up heads when you flip it the tenth time? The answer of course is 50%. Now word the question differently and the answer will change, "If you flip a coin 10 times what are the chances it will come up heads everytime?"

My apologies for making anybodys head hurt!

*hands Breit jumbo size bottle of tylenol*

Breitkat
Breitkat
Pinball Amateur

Mar-25-2008 14:49

Zanku, Ctown. I needed that. ;-)

Jesse Hunter
Jesse Hunter
Santa's Little Helper

Mar-25-2008 15:53

During my villain hunt I got clues in two cities that were rendered completely unnecessary by other clues. Because of this I favor a model that says once the accomplice is randomly set all clues that would contradict that accomplice's characteristics are stricken from a big master list of possible clues. All the remaining clues are handed out willy nilly.

To address the original question: no, I don't think any of the clues serve as tie breakers.

miss snopes
miss snopes
The Tome Ranger

Mar-25-2008 16:33

Thank you all for your replies. I went ahead and played 2 more cases last night in which I was given the clues "IS EAST of the bank" and "IS SOUTH of the detective shop".

The Missionary turned out to be the guilty culprit!!!!

VS - loved the mathematical equation. I haven't checked, but are you "Very Smart"? lol

Thanks again everyone!

Secret_Squirrel
Secret_Squirrel
Safety Officer

Mar-25-2008 16:56

I'm glad you got the right person snopes.

Just to clarify...

The more hunts you do, the more clues you accrue, the more knowledge you obtain. The easier the hunts become. Simple.

FACT: SOME clues ARE definitive. 'Not the Holy Man' is NOT one of them.
FACT: Each townsperson has a set of clues that does NOT change hunt by hunt (one day I hope Ben changes this, so it's completely random)

SO keep writing down all the clues you get folks. I have a table for each city.

With all due respect to VS who may well be right in his mathematical calculations, I'm certainly not nay-saying that, but it's just historical statistic gathering. [see above for 'the more hunts you do... etc']

AND ultimately you still have to solve the cases, and the clues still have to come and not repeat, and you still have to spend an unbelievable amount of time on them to get an overall picture of how clues fall.

Three cheers for Evelyn Gardner! Who is the real hunt queen, and who is definitively the 'expert' with 69 Hunts and still going!

AND kudos to msnichelle0424 42 and climbing!!

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