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Clumping together.
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Jim Diamond
Jim Diamond

Jul-31-2007 07:23

Surely someone else than me must've noticed that if one suspect easily clams they all do, and the townspeople don't and vice versa. And so on and so forth. I assume it's got something to do with the "same thing behind door 2" rule, no? It's useful to me in that I use my questions more economically when I notice what pattern the current case follows. Any thoughts on this?

Replies

Jim Diamond
Jim Diamond

Aug-2-2007 23:04

Sure. I understand that you all think *I* am the deluded one here, but so far none of you have actually understood what I'm trying to figure out here. Apparently I have a problem with making myself understood.

I don't think I have rediscovered the game. That's why I assumed that you all had seen this connection. But seeing how you all seem so bent on "saving me" from my "delusions" I start to doubt it's of any use to try to explain myself. Some of you remind me of the witch burners of old ("we don't understand what this person's on about and it scares us so let's kill them").

Squirrel, I do in fact like a good conspiracy theory, but for the laugh. The fact that I've had a couple that turned out to be right doesn't have anything to do with anything.

If you think maths and numbers are what define this universe, fine. I understand that. It's what they teach you at school, but really science is and have never been very durable. Research is conducted by a scientist who comes up with something completely astonishing that he spends the next ten years trying so hard to proove. I mean who comes up with the idea to test if coffee combined with work out helps protect against skin cancer? Hm? And science is ever changing. What they claim they've discovered one day is nullified by other scientists' discoveries only a few days later. It's never final. And there are so many things that mankind can't yet concieve and comprehend. In my life probability plays a very small roll if any. I've had more than my share of unlikely happenings, so many it can't be called coincidence anymore. And I've stopped becoming surprised. The list of things that have happened can be made really long. I know some people claim that our minds tend to better remember the things that happen to them that are out of place and all, but that ain't applicable here. You just have to trust me on this. If I was of a weak bent I would either be religious or insane at this point. I choose to shrug instead..

Jim Diamond
Jim Diamond

Aug-2-2007 23:19

..and just keep going. Sure more things will keep happening, but it's not worth putting my time and effort into gasping at every single occurence.

What this thread was about was, however, not one of those occurences. A game is programmed using numbers. Sure it's all random. But add some modifiers like bonuses, and skills that lets you see the probability, and so on, and the randomness is greatly reduced. All you mathematicians out there know this. Take your blinds off. I will give it one more try to explain what I'm on about here, but if you still don't get it I give up. I noticed something in the game that I wanted to discuss. I didn't think it was new, or discovered by me. Then I noticed you didn't seem to know what I was talking about, so I tried to explain. I am not interested in wasting my time and energy trying to explain this to someone who's not interested in understanding it. If you are gonna yell "RANDOM! NO PATTERN!" at me again, please don't. Go away. If you're interested in discussing this, since it greatly helps case solving, by all means hang around.

Question:

Is there a maximum number (is a margin of one question reasonable?) of questions per suspect at each difficulty level (assuming there is no clam or it's overcome), and if so, what is it?

I have a follow up question to this one, if the answer is yes.

Lady Emerald Devon
Lady Emerald Devon
Nomad

Aug-3-2007 02:23

Hi Jim,

I'm sorry you're feeling persecuted. You have to excuse us oversensitives types :)

I think why people are upset is because they've played the game for ages and have seen this all before. And because they often have nearly all, if not all of the skills plus the best equipment AND eons of experience they realise that while there ARE patterns from time to time, it IS random and eventually those patterns don't stand up. Meanwhile, you're implying that all that counts for nothing and they're wrong. And I know we shouldn't be so sensitive to that! :)

However, that said, I know a lot of detectives that will use patterns or such as a guide.. or will use certain superstitions they've come up with as a guide.

The problem is, the game IS random. Now, I don't know about the Chaos Theory... (and I may be thinking of something else) but I thought that the Chaos Theory was only applicable to large numbers.. that is only worked because if you have infinate numbers/happenings/events it would be impossible NOT to see a pattern or a trend to chaos.

Once again, I think that is why people are having trouble understanding.
First, (And plase take no offense) perhaps you haven't done enough cases to see a legimate claims. Statistics are only as accurate as the numbers involved. The greater the test sample the more accuarate.

But none of that really matters. What does matter is that Newbies are told, not to worry about the Crime Scene or most of the twists, not to just their instincts are accuse willynilly but to only accuse IF the people follow the formula.

I think posts like this and looking for patterns just confused some people.

I understand what you're trying to do and I think it's really interesting... perhaps you could show me the results now of your findings and then again after 1000 cases and so on.
I think finding patterns is cool too and I love statistics :)

My favourite part of watching cricket most times is actually when they show things like the Worm, the Wagon Wheel, the Skyscraper and all the play statistics as well as t

Lady Emerald Devon
Lady Emerald Devon
Nomad

Aug-3-2007 02:23

he field statistics. I love all that.

I also love that Numbers programme on telly but that might be just because I think that older brother is a hottie! Heh.

Lady Ruby Caplan
Lady Ruby Caplan
Well-Connected

Aug-3-2007 02:25

(And I meant a trend to order not a trend to chaos heh. My dumb.)

biggie528
biggie528
Lucky Stiff

Aug-3-2007 03:51

Some of you remind me of the witch burners of old ("we don't understand what this person's on about and it scares us so let's kill them")

Ok, i think you're exaggerating just slightly, no one is trying to crucify you :)

Leddie is right, the community's reaction to this is probably for every reason she just stated.

And to answer your question, Jim, its not EXACT, but there are a certain number of questions you have at the beginning of each case within one or two. ie. for an Incredibly Hard case, you either get 1 or 0. Your skill chance is what determines how many (if any) questions you get after clamming occurs.

Sophie4
Sophie4
Gopher to the Sleuth Gods

Aug-3-2007 05:27

Jim, you're wasting your time on this. A more productive thing would be to go to Shanghai and figure out which horse is going to win. when you get that pattern, please PM me. :)

Jim Diamond
Jim Diamond

Aug-4-2007 03:39

No matter. Treschaude PMd me the answer I was looking for and I'm doing some stats on my own (with an extra test detective). I will indeed post what I come up with, even if it's a dead end. I am *certainly not* saying I'm right and you're all wrong. This because we're not even talking about the same thing. I will not speculate whether that comes from the fact that you are all hopelessly daft, *or* the fact that English isn't my native language and my vocabulary is limited. ;P

Sophie4.. you don't know who you're asking. Just because it's so totally crazy I feel an urge to actually check that out. I will start on the horses after I'm done with this. ;D

Miss Hermione Granger
Miss Hermione Granger

Aug-4-2007 04:30

I have a few Sleuth superstitions of my own. I'm sure they are just random chaos and just happen as often as I think they do simply because of the number of cases I have done. I'm not a statistics person. If you find a way to win on the ponies, let me know!

Secret_Squirrel
Secret_Squirrel
Safety Officer

Aug-4-2007 05:49

sorry run it by me why we can't burn people at the stake again...? :D

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