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Dec-4-2006 13:17

I was doing an IH case. I have 8 suspects each (The fortune teller has confirmed that I have all the suspects).
Of the eight suspects
1 is dead.
2 have alibis
1 is innocent through research

2 do not have alibis, but no physical evidence links to them
Of the remaining 2. I have found the names of two suspects who think they know who the murder is (one of which doesn't have an alibi). Neither of the witnesses think the non-witness without alibi is the murderer. But the remaining witness doesn't think the other suspect is the murderer either.

So either the rules have changed (3 witnesses, one of which has misleading evidence) or I got confused on the physical evidence (there were 3 threads - one male, two female). But I made sure to be very careful with that.

So have the rules changed at any point in the last 6 months?

Dec-4-2006 14:04

Mr. Average,

If you have 2 WEs against a suspect, you can accuse that suspect without confirming an alibi.

If you have a suspect with "none" as the alibi and you have WE against him, you can accuse that suspect.

If you have a suspect with "none" as the alibi and you have PE against him, you can accuse that suspect.

Replace the "none" with any fake alibi and you can accuse that suspect.

*tips hat*
Barry

Dec-4-2006 15:06

I am well aware of those rules. But as I was aware the 2 WE rule comes from the fact that there are 3 Witnesses. Two of which will point to the murderer and one of which will point to someone with an alibi.

Therefore, if you know who at least two of these witnesses and have shorted the list of potential suspects through alibis, PE and research you can continue to eliminate suspects until only one suspect is left. If neither witness has evidence against a suspect you can eliminate that suspect.

I used to solve many cases like this. Though unable to positively identify the murderer I was able to negitively identify the murder through virtue that it couldn't be anyone else. Through since I've come this hasn't worked (or I made a mistake). However this is twice that it hasn't worked in 4 cases. So I was wondering if any rules had changed (or have I gotten sloppy).

Dec-4-2006 15:06

Oh, and thanks for the reply.

Sam.

Dec-4-2006 15:13

Sam, as a few recently-retired detectives can attest to, it turns out that there are NOT exactly 3 witnesses in every case; there are confirmed reports of cases where there have been at least 4.

I dont know whether or not that has always been the case, or if its a recent randomization factor... but it seems that you can't definitively eliminate a suspect by lack of "knowledgable" WE in that sense anymore.

Dec-5-2006 10:34

oh really :S ... oh well then , i guess that confirms the need for quitting this case of mine :(

Dec-5-2006 11:16

The only time that it is possible to have 4 WE in a case is on an AI case with 11 suspects.

Dec-5-2006 11:18

Just curious, but how do you know that's certain, Ran? Has it been confirmed somewhere? Or is it defined by some game mechanic that I'm not thinking of?

Not implying you're wrong in any way... just wondering if this is a fact or a theory.

Dec-6-2006 06:10

Two things.

1 - I have never encountered the 4 WE and I solve a lot of case that way. Not saying it does not exist but one would think that in two years someone would have seen this before the recent retirement. So if it exists it has to be very rare.

2 - The math for 10 suspects means you would have 2 WE against a valid alibi with 4 we in the case.

Accepted statistics for an AI case:
10 or 11 suspects
7 false alibis - 1 cleared by research
There is always 1 PE that matches a false alibi & 2 WE that match the same false albi

That leaves on a 10 suspect case only 3 possible people to get a WE and a Valid alibi. Only one suspect with a valid alibi would not have WE against them. Those three already have one PE match also.

66% chance of it happening.

With those chances of it happening, I would have found 2 suspects with PE and WE in a case with a valid alibi on a regular basis.

After this theory of 4 WE was brought up I started checking WE against valid alibis on my AI cases even after they were solved to find how many there really are. I have not found a case yet that I get 2 WE against valid alibis.

With 11 suspects the chances of it happening drop to 50% per valid alibi. I will conceed that I might have just been unlucky and not been able to find a case with 2 WE yet with those chances.

Dec-6-2006 12:40

how come , i ddnt uncerstand , y does only 1 suspect with a valid alibi not have a WE against them , not 2 suspects :S?!

Dec-6-2006 13:44

If there are 3 WE per case then 2 belong to a false alibi and one belongs to a valid alibi.

If there are 4 WE per case than 2 belong to a false alibi and two belong people with a valid alibi (two different people, one each).