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Factions and Townies??
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Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

Mar-28-2012 08:38

Now... This may sound ridiculous, but I think the shoemaker in New York works for OOS!

And if you are positive with the OOS, you can easily get him as your contact.

And if you are positive with DAB, you easily get the priest. You know I strongly doubted this before, I even implicitly asked about it when I was raci, but I was told it was all random.

I think it's not all that random! My new subscribed detective Cingöt got the shoemaker again, after Eden, and he was OOS+ too. (sounds as if he were hiv+ creepy, lol)

Raci was DAB+, got the priest 3 times (following deliberate fa's to lose him - the priest)

The butcher in NY, I believe is connected to either the OOS oR LCN.

(I am thinking Oos)

Anyone to second this hunch?



Replies

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

Mar-28-2012 16:15

@cfm:

Well I was going to mention something related to that. Now it's time I guess:


Priest x 3 is not a case of selective perception. It is something weird, when compared with respect to a pool of possibilities that consists of its set of negation. I am not overly confident or anything but this is what I come up with:

1) If the event is "having priest as your contact", and if we simply say that there are 10 townies,

then 3 times of this event taking place successively would mean:

(1/10)^3 = 0.001

What is "non-3 times priest" makes up for the 0.999 making the probability 1.

Among this 0.999 chance is:

* 2 priests, 1 other townie:

(3C2)(1/10)(9/10)(9/10) = 0.243

* 1 priest, 2 other townies:

(3C1)(1/10)(1/10)(9/10) = 0.027

* no priest
(9/10)^3 = 0.729

0.001+0.243+0.027+0.729 = 1

These are independent events, so normally, my having three priests in a row is no different than having 3 different contacts each time. But I am not a believer of miracles and that's not what I am saying either.


This event is not any different than picking 3 balls out of a bag full of balls with different colors (with replacement after each pick)

But, picking the same ball three times is a very low chance wrt not picking it.

You see, I wasn't talking about picking a specific contact that's not just the priest.

I was comparing pX3 to what's "non pX3".

It was even weirder, when I had done all those favors, sometimes repeatedly with the same twonie, to see that they would not become my contacts but the priest would, after 1 take. (imagine doing this 3 times by getting retired 2 times)





Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

Mar-28-2012 16:33

2) Computers CANNOT generate random values. Sorry for the capital letters, I thought it needed emphasis.

I am not a computer geek either, but this is what I know -and the great geek we have who happens to be Ben, if he has time, can confirm/refute this:

To pick something and not the other is itself a formula. The computer generates a huge, large set of values to pick from but it creates this set according to an algorithm.

Think about it. The coder is human, and needs to make a specification for something that is supposed to be random - because the computer memory is limited wrt to infinity.

What he'll do is write an algorithm for the picking process itself. What makes it close to random is the largeness of the set from among which it is to pick a value, so that the recurrence of values is decreased. So that you don't get to pick the same values always.

So the "kind" of randomness in which 0.001 chance of picking something occurs - it's the only outcome among a thousand events, not say 5 out of 5000 as the 0.001 ratio could otherwise suggest) deliberately achieve.

So it, I think, could only be an unwanted but inevitable pattern.

I don't know, maybe some expert would come and say "0.001 is a very large number wrt to any pool of numbers that were specifically assigned to create the pseudo-random effect anyway". I really don't know, but this is what I think.


ThePumpkinKing
ThePumpkinKing
Tome Raider

Mar-28-2012 16:39

Seems you've done most of your homework when calculating the chances for getting the priest as a contact, but you've used the wrong numbers. Remember getting the priest as a contact isn't a probability of 1/10, but 1/6. Still very hard to manage three times in a row, though...

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

Mar-28-2012 16:42

*correction: "cannot really be deliberately achieved" so I mean to say, there is either a pattern or some rule to the game I don't know, which I'll admit is wishful thinking. Sort of. I2ve had my share of absurdities to start to think this way, though*

@Jas: Thank you very much for the info. I found it:

http://noir.playsleuth.com/map/cityhall/post.spy?id=16108&first_record=135939

The guy had it all figured out.

Now I wonder how he found out about the specifics of faction-townie matching. Trial and error sure is the hard way. I hope it's not the only way but Chronestrian has retired.

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

This reply has been deleted by a Moderator

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

This reply has been deleted by a Moderator

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

This reply has been deleted by a Moderator

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

Mar-28-2012 17:25

-I wish we had some text editor here, I hate having to correct myself. PM'ed Jas to delete some of my posts.

I somehow got confused as to the number of total townies. pe/we= 4/6 in NY right? so it's (1/4)(1/6) = 1/24.

Still in my situation it is 1/10. Because I never got to have the second contact and one can have a contact of either type.



R Anstett
R Anstett

Mar-28-2012 20:18

In my conversations with Chron way back when he definitely believed he had the pattern for NY correct. He thought he was close on the next three cities. Cairo was after his time but I would guess it follows the same algorithm.

The hypothesis was that Ben planned it to be random within specific guidelines.

I think he was onto something but I also know that we like to see patterns in randomness that do not actually exist. I always prefered to just play the cases the way they came at me and let the contacts fall where they may.

BadAss
BadAss
Charioteer

May-13-2016 08:41

I did notice while doing treasure hunts that I frequently get cases in which a faction either wants me to solve a case or let the matter go. There was a particular townie that I needed and remained very elusive for two days. Then I got two easy cases in a row where I decided to quit to please a certain faction. Lo and behold, the favor for that particular townie finally came out ...

After that I decided to figure out if there could be a possible connection between factions & townies. To be honest, I haven't covered all townies yet and some are more obvious than others. I didn't include Cairo as there are no factions there.

Tea Merchant(s) & Eastern Triads --> only London and Shanghai have a Tea Merchant and are also the only cities where the Triads are represented

Priest/Missionary & Dies Arcanum --> the only clergymen in the game are in NY and Delhi, the cities that have Dies Arcanum

Shoe Maker(s) & Order of Socrates --> only NY and Shanghai have a Shoe Maker (Cairo too but see above), only NY & Shanghai have the OoS.

Podiatrist(s) & Green Hand --> only London and Delhi have Podiatrists and are also the only cities with the GH

Concierge(s) & Green Hand --> same as with Podiatrists

Butcher/Fish Monger & OoS --> the only townies that deal in food (again Cairo is not included here) can be found in NY & Shanghai, cities that have the OoS in common

Every city has a barber, waiter/waitress, fortune teller and bartender. Connecting these townies with a faction isn't very obvious. One observation perhaps, London & Delhi have a waiter while NY & Shanghai have a waitress. Perhaps one cold conclude that the Waiter in London & Delhi is affiliated with the Green Hand while the Waitress in NY & Shanghai would be affiliated with the Order of Socrates. Just an idea ...

Every city also has a unique townie; Curator (London), Music Teacher (NY), Stage Manager (Shanghai) and Holy Man (Delhi). Connecting these with a faction isn't very obvious either. Thoughts?

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