Anais Nin
Thespian
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Jun-20-2009 20:31
Well one has better odds of a one day hunt than being struck by lightning then... Or maybe not, depending on variable #3.
Did you know there is a 1/12,000 chance of finding a pearl in an oyster you are eating?
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Joseph Zeo
Tale Spinner
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Jun-21-2009 08:30
Well in that perspective I guess we still have a chance to do VH within a day....
I see that you can usually get 4 hints for those townies solvable within two clues. So the probability should be 2/4 or 1/2 if they do not repeat themselves, but then, they do. Let's say there's a 50% chance that they do repeat, that gives you 1/4 chance of finding the townie within 2 clues. Multiple that number with 1/3750 = 1/15,000.
1/15,000. I think that's a fair estimation. In that case, I should start looking for that pearl in the oysters I eat :-)
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