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Clumping together.
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Jim Diamond
Jim Diamond

Jul-31-2007 07:23

Surely someone else than me must've noticed that if one suspect easily clams they all do, and the townspeople don't and vice versa. And so on and so forth. I assume it's got something to do with the "same thing behind door 2" rule, no? It's useful to me in that I use my questions more economically when I notice what pattern the current case follows. Any thoughts on this?

Replies

Treschaude
Treschaude
Washed Up Punter

Aug-1-2007 22:46

Another issue I see with the "system" information gathering is your gear. It surprised me when you posted that if one person "easily clams they all do". That's just part of being 14 days old. Getting more than 2 clammed out of a possible 11 suspects is very, very rare for an experienced detective who has good gear and skills. They get most if not all of their questions answered regularly. So if that is the case, how could there be any system that depends on the number or placement of clammed suspects or townies?

As to the number of questions that a suspect or townie can answer, that depends on the level of difficulty of the cases and the randomness of the game. E.g., I can be at 72% and get 3 questions from a townie, move to the next with 105% and only get one. It has no effect on whether the actual murderer is with that particular townie or not. Actually, most often he/she's not.

I have also heard the theory about the murderer's alibi being at the townie where their evidence is. I personally think that the game kind of goes in waves like that. Where it teases you into seeing a pattern, but just when you start to believe it, the tide turns and everything you thought you knew doesn't work anymore. I went through a phase when everyone who had no alibi was the guilty party. Case after case for a what felt like weeks. As soon as I started talking about it like I had figured something out - it stopped. It was nice while it lasted though.

ctown28
ctown28
Tireless Tiger

Aug-1-2007 23:21

maybe this belongs in the newbie thread!

It's obvious you want to see something that is not there. Jim, do you honestly think that you came in and rediscovered the game? The theories have been looked at and are unfounded and ridiculous. I don't mean any disrespect, but you seem to insist on somthing that isn't there. Let me say it again.

NO PATTERN

Jim Diamond
Jim Diamond

Aug-2-2007 07:42

Well, I don't want to sound rude either, but if there was a pattern..

1. If everyone thinks like you (ie "there is no pattern") they aren't keeping their eyes open and could very well have missed it.

2. Ben would have changed it assuming it came to his knowledge that a pattern had been found and was really there and not just imagination.

Randomness is never *that* random. Read a bit about chaos theory. Also if you go long enough you will start seeing patterns. Sometimes even when there are none, and sometimes because they're there. So, why not let us have fun checking out our suspicions? If we are right or wrong can't possibly matter that much. It's a game after all.

Kelly O'Publik
Kelly O'Publik

Aug-2-2007 10:01

Don't meant to but in here, but I'm wondering if you've ever seen "π" Jim. When you related to chaos theory and starting to "see" patterns, that's what popped into my head. And the movie is not far from the reality of the situation. Most people who search into chaos,trying to make "order" and "patterns", drive themselves crazy. Just a public service announcement from a casual observer.

Jim Diamond
Jim Diamond

Aug-2-2007 23:04

Sure. I understand that you all think *I* am the deluded one here, but so far none of you have actually understood what I'm trying to figure out here. Apparently I have a problem with making myself understood.

I don't think I have rediscovered the game. That's why I assumed that you all had seen this connection. But seeing how you all seem so bent on "saving me" from my "delusions" I start to doubt it's of any use to try to explain myself. Some of you remind me of the witch burners of old ("we don't understand what this person's on about and it scares us so let's kill them").

Squirrel, I do in fact like a good conspiracy theory, but for the laugh. The fact that I've had a couple that turned out to be right doesn't have anything to do with anything.

If you think maths and numbers are what define this universe, fine. I understand that. It's what they teach you at school, but really science is and have never been very durable. Research is conducted by a scientist who comes up with something completely astonishing that he spends the next ten years trying so hard to proove. I mean who comes up with the idea to test if coffee combined with work out helps protect against skin cancer? Hm? And science is ever changing. What they claim they've discovered one day is nullified by other scientists' discoveries only a few days later. It's never final. And there are so many things that mankind can't yet concieve and comprehend. In my life probability plays a very small roll if any. I've had more than my share of unlikely happenings, so many it can't be called coincidence anymore. And I've stopped becoming surprised. The list of things that have happened can be made really long. I know some people claim that our minds tend to better remember the things that happen to them that are out of place and all, but that ain't applicable here. You just have to trust me on this. If I was of a weak bent I would either be religious or insane at this point. I choose to shrug instead..

Jim Diamond
Jim Diamond

Aug-2-2007 23:19

..and just keep going. Sure more things will keep happening, but it's not worth putting my time and effort into gasping at every single occurence.

What this thread was about was, however, not one of those occurences. A game is programmed using numbers. Sure it's all random. But add some modifiers like bonuses, and skills that lets you see the probability, and so on, and the randomness is greatly reduced. All you mathematicians out there know this. Take your blinds off. I will give it one more try to explain what I'm on about here, but if you still don't get it I give up. I noticed something in the game that I wanted to discuss. I didn't think it was new, or discovered by me. Then I noticed you didn't seem to know what I was talking about, so I tried to explain. I am not interested in wasting my time and energy trying to explain this to someone who's not interested in understanding it. If you are gonna yell "RANDOM! NO PATTERN!" at me again, please don't. Go away. If you're interested in discussing this, since it greatly helps case solving, by all means hang around.

Question:

Is there a maximum number (is a margin of one question reasonable?) of questions per suspect at each difficulty level (assuming there is no clam or it's overcome), and if so, what is it?

I have a follow up question to this one, if the answer is yes.

Lady Emerald Devon
Lady Emerald Devon
Nomad

Aug-3-2007 02:23

Hi Jim,

I'm sorry you're feeling persecuted. You have to excuse us oversensitives types :)

I think why people are upset is because they've played the game for ages and have seen this all before. And because they often have nearly all, if not all of the skills plus the best equipment AND eons of experience they realise that while there ARE patterns from time to time, it IS random and eventually those patterns don't stand up. Meanwhile, you're implying that all that counts for nothing and they're wrong. And I know we shouldn't be so sensitive to that! :)

However, that said, I know a lot of detectives that will use patterns or such as a guide.. or will use certain superstitions they've come up with as a guide.

The problem is, the game IS random. Now, I don't know about the Chaos Theory... (and I may be thinking of something else) but I thought that the Chaos Theory was only applicable to large numbers.. that is only worked because if you have infinate numbers/happenings/events it would be impossible NOT to see a pattern or a trend to chaos.

Once again, I think that is why people are having trouble understanding.
First, (And plase take no offense) perhaps you haven't done enough cases to see a legimate claims. Statistics are only as accurate as the numbers involved. The greater the test sample the more accuarate.

But none of that really matters. What does matter is that Newbies are told, not to worry about the Crime Scene or most of the twists, not to just their instincts are accuse willynilly but to only accuse IF the people follow the formula.

I think posts like this and looking for patterns just confused some people.

I understand what you're trying to do and I think it's really interesting... perhaps you could show me the results now of your findings and then again after 1000 cases and so on.
I think finding patterns is cool too and I love statistics :)

My favourite part of watching cricket most times is actually when they show things like the Worm, the Wagon Wheel, the Skyscraper and all the play statistics as well as t

Lady Emerald Devon
Lady Emerald Devon
Nomad

Aug-3-2007 02:23

he field statistics. I love all that.

I also love that Numbers programme on telly but that might be just because I think that older brother is a hottie! Heh.

Lady Ruby Caplan
Lady Ruby Caplan
Well-Connected

Aug-3-2007 02:25

(And I meant a trend to order not a trend to chaos heh. My dumb.)

biggie528
biggie528
Lucky Stiff

Aug-3-2007 03:51

Some of you remind me of the witch burners of old ("we don't understand what this person's on about and it scares us so let's kill them")

Ok, i think you're exaggerating just slightly, no one is trying to crucify you :)

Leddie is right, the community's reaction to this is probably for every reason she just stated.

And to answer your question, Jim, its not EXACT, but there are a certain number of questions you have at the beginning of each case within one or two. ie. for an Incredibly Hard case, you either get 1 or 0. Your skill chance is what determines how many (if any) questions you get after clamming occurs.

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