Sleuth Home - Message Boards - Newbie Questions

Mar-27-2007 17:24

Hi all,
i must admit that after searching in the forums and some community sites, i was a bit surprised to see that there is no clear indication of what the ratio of people, evidence, suspects is for each mystery level.
For the Intermediate level, most sources indicate (6-7 ppl / 2 ev / 3 susp).
Some sources only give 7 ppl, but i had 6 too, so the 6-7 ppl indication seems correct.
I just had a 'favor' case (intermediate) where i found 7 ppl. 3 had valid alibies, 3 had NO aliby. I did not check the 4th, based on the assumption that there can be only 3 suspects at this level.
In the end, there was no PE matching any of my 3 suspects ! (yes, i was able to check them all)

Assuming only 2 possible evidence, which i found, the possible explanations I see:
1. the intermediate level can have 4 suspects. Note: a certain xls helper gives (6-7 ppl / 2 ev / 2-4 susp) 2-4 would be crazy, very little info from it.
2. the intermediate level favors deviate from the general (6-7/2/3) rule
3. it is possible for a killer to have no associated PE (?)

Thanks for any comments and a link to a good source of info ;)
naud

Mar-28-2007 01:43

Serges, you are right :) The number of suspects is X or X+1 the number of fakes is constant (but one will be revealed by research).

Naud, the numbers are known for great number of people. The reason you couldnt find a complete list on the boards is that Ben have asked not to post it. Some might want to discover this by themselves, so giving it away might be a spoiler.
Still... there is a list. I know many people have my list :P So if you want it, just PM me and Ill send it to you.

Mar-28-2007 01:43

Most of the time, the numbers you'll find on the helper forms are accurate. Some of them DO take the research skill into account, some DON'T.

Technically, Naud, your helper is valid, because it's accounting for both instances. In an intermediate case, there are always a minimum of three suspects with a false/no alibi. If you've got research, this knocks that down to two--ergo, the smaller number. The highest number of false/no alibis I've ever seen on an intermediate case is four, which, if you don't have research, means you've got four suspects to check.

The higher up the levels you go, the more accurate the helpers tend to be. Incredibly hard stats NEVER vary from what Serges has. This, I think, is because the majority of the Sleuth community has them for their favor cases, and therefore, the stats are basically cemented (remember again, having research can alter your individual numbers +/-1, to a max. of 5 false suspects).

As for evidence, the numbers increase to three pieces per case starting at the hard level. I've never run across an easy or intermediate case with three pieces of evidence, only two.

In the case you provided, unless you had the Research skill, which would let you eliminate the fourth suspect as a false alibi, but wouldn't match any of the evidence, you couldn't rule him out. Technically, he was still a viable suspect unless you got a verified real alibi from a townsperson, or research eliminated him.

Regardless of what case you're working on, at what level, with however many gabillion suspects and evidence you have, the killer WILL ALWAYS BE THE ONLY ONE with a false/no alibi, one piece of evidence that matches to him, and two w/e statements against him. No other suspect in a case will have those criteria. Those elements are ALWAYS there in every case. Whether or not you can actually find all of them is another story....;-)

Mar-28-2007 01:45

Oh almost forgot:

If you have the basic hair and thread skills, you will always find all the evidence available. It might not be specified, you need advanced skills, smart outfit and luck for that :) but it will be there.
If you dont have basic hair and thread, you can assume that you wont find all the evidence in all cases.

Mar-28-2007 01:49

and about the helper....

The watson helper is correct about numbers. It also let's you take research into considaration. From what I know, Naomi's helper is not always correct about the numbers. I think it was created before some changes were made. So I wouldnt trust the numbers you get there.
There is also a third (new) helper around. I didnt check that, so Im not sure how correct it is. But Watson is deffinatly good to use.

Mar-28-2007 06:01

Quote reda: 'the killer WILL ALWAYS BE THE ONLY ONE with a false/no alibi, one piece of evidence that matches to him, and two w/e statements against him'

Most sources give the formula: PE + fake/no alibi = guilty

What you say, reda, is a bit less specific. For example, your sentence does not exclude the following case:
Suspect 1: no alibi, PE
Suspect 2: no alibi, PE, 2xWE
If such a case were possible, then Suspect 2 is the killer, but this would contradict the above-mentioned rule.

I will try to summarize what I believe to be true, and ask the more Sleuth-savyy people for confirmation:
1. The Killer has one and only one PE against him.
2. From the complete list of people with fake/no alibi, one and only one (the killer) matches a PE.
3. From the complete list of people with fake/no alibi, for a given WE, only one person (the killer) can match it.

Please note that i formulated my remarks carefully regarding the mathematics logic, so I mostly invite those people to answer, that believe the following sentence to be true:
'If 2+2=5 then a kangaroo is a mamal.'

hehe... joking :)
I'll appreciate any feedback,
naud

This reply has been deleted by a Moderator

Mar-28-2007 06:21

Firsly:

1. yes
2. yes
3. yes

Secondly:

No alibi/fake + PE = GUILTY
No alibi/fake + WE = GUILTY
WE + WE = GUILTY

oh and this gets added in a lot these days: PE + WE does NOT = GUILTY

those are the hard and fast fool proof laws of sleuth.

Mar-28-2007 12:41

3. From the complete list of people with fake/no alibi, for a given WE, only one person (the killer) can match it.

actually his number 3 seems a little weird... i mean a WE specifically states the name of the suspect (in his list with fake/no alibi)... so i mean of course the person pointed out would match it right?

Mar-28-2007 17:39

lol hence why all I answered was yes.

Mar-28-2007 20:51

By the way, Reda wasn't the one who made that statement, Naud. I was. In every case, only ONE suspect (the killer) will have ALL of the following:

A false/no alibi
A piece of physical evidence (P/E) matched to him
A total of two witness statements (W/E) made against him

The other suspects will all have alibis. Some will be real, some will be false. The people with REAL alibis will also have physical evidence (P/E) and witness statements (W/E) against them, but because they have VALID alibis, they CANNOT BE THE KILLER. Real alibi suspects will also only have one W/E statement against them, not two.

Regardless of who is your killer, chances are pretty good you're not going to be able to find and verify all the alibis for all of the people, identify all of the evidence to everyone, and get all of the witness statements for everyone. (Even the old-time veterans can't do it, and they've got umpty-ump gabillion experience points and skills to work with.) And the higher the level your case is, the sooner people clam on you.

The moral of the story is, please don't make assumptions until you've hit one of the magic formulas/laws. They're used because they've been tested, and they work.