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What Makes You Tick?
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Mary-Catherine
Mary-Catherine

Mar-19-2006 14:14

When you try to solve a case do you think it is someone else that could possibly be it but realize that it is the person that you thought it was all along?

Replies

R Anstett
R Anstett

Mar-19-2006 18:07

I do use my gut to check evidence first.

I will tend to pick someone to check things against that I know is a liar, and I just 'feel' could be the killer. I am likely right about 40% of the time, but at least it gives me a starting point when checking evidence.

Tayna
Tayna

Mar-19-2006 18:30

thats true...bout the gut instinct thing...so how many cases have u both solved, quit, and falsely accused??


Makensie Brewer
Makensie Brewer
Super Steeper

Mar-19-2006 21:43

Case History
Cases Quit: 215
Cases Solved: 2279
False Accusations: 1

Ya know where I said dont guess.....LOL This particular falsey didnt come from me guessing tho, it was an assumption,and u know what they say about assuming :)


BadAss
BadAss
Charioteer

Mar-20-2006 03:42

There's no such thing as a gut instinct about this game...suppose your left with two suspects that both have PE and WE against them, but it's impossible to verify their alibi because they're clammed up....

Don't even think about taking a guess here because the program will automatically pick out the other one then the one you've chosen...

R Anstett
R Anstett

Mar-20-2006 07:29

Bad, the program could not do that or half the cases would be broken.

The outcome of the case has to be part of setting up the case file in the first place.

I do believe that there is a gut feeling for part of it, in that after doing a couple of thousand cases you "feel" where the random numbers are likely to be. Of course understandng probability helps a lot. Knowing that 1 in 6 times yoru client will be guilty at the Easy level and less than half of that at the AI level is just one example.

What you suggest above is simply guessing based on nothing, so 50% chance of getting it right. Which is why Shady is a rich man.

Charlie Cain
Charlie Cain
Thespian

Mar-20-2006 10:21

I haven't been around along time but I also feel like there is a gut feeling. I have noticed it on most of my cases, it does help me when it comes to alibis but also when I feel like there is physical evidence that belongs to a certain suspect.

I dont how ever go by gut instinct alone.

Makensie Brewer
Makensie Brewer
Super Steeper

Mar-20-2006 11:13

There is such a thing as gut feeling, I just meant you dont want to accuse on that alone ;)

BadAss
BadAss
Charioteer

Mar-20-2006 14:29

Gut feeling about algorithmic decisions....come on folks, you know damn well about decision trees and that they can be programmed to give a false outcome whenever you pick your choice based on nothing. Every time I had a choice between two suspects it was always the other one....Or maybe I'm just a poor gambler - lol!!!!

BadAss
BadAss
Charioteer

Mar-20-2006 15:00

And accusing suspects based on the theory of probabilty makes Shady a rich guy indeed :)

Tayna
Tayna

Mar-20-2006 16:29

im still a newbie and already have made two false accusations from my gut instint...tho talking to the shady character in the bar erased them all.

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