Sleuth Home - Message Boards - Newbie Questions

May-7-2005 22:24

Who do I talk to if I believe I solved the case right according to all the clues but it said I falsely accused? All the clues pointed to certain people yet I was told I was wrong. This included one that said they knew who the murderer was but said they had no reason to suspect the "real" murderer.
Any help would be great, thanks in advance.

Miss Jazzabelle

May-8-2005 07:44

Keep in mind that....

Guilty = 1PE + Fake or "none of your business alibi"

Guilty = 1WE + Fake of "none of your business alibi"

Guilty = 2 WE

(PE = Physical Evidence WE = Witness Evidence)

If you do not have one of the above, the best you can do is an educated guess, which leaves you open to the possibility of a False Accusation....

(note: 1PE +1 WE = A GUESS not guilty)

May-8-2005 09:56

cfm, just to warn you that the last one, 2 EW, doesn't mean guilty. I had two cases already where I had 2 EW and the evidence pointed differently. The killer was not the one where the witnesses pointed. FYI.

Dark Raven.

May-8-2005 10:24

Really!? I've never had a case that does that. In my experience, any suspect that has two witness evidence has always turned out to be the murderer!

May-8-2005 10:33

*sigh*

There has been contention over this issue before...

*pulls up a chair and begins digging through the newbie thread, searching, page by page, for Ben's last comments on the matter some months ago*

May-8-2005 11:42

hehe - good luck with that cfm!

May-8-2005 19:52

It's here somewhere...I know it is...

*collapses on the pile of papers before her*

May-9-2005 03:09

Moving this to newbies.

May-9-2005 11:04

A word of wisdom from Dogberta once again. Just less than a week from my last thread ("The Easies Hard Case Ever", in the Sleuth Talk forum) which I took risks, and success.

Yes, the smartest way is quitting rather than guessing. However, it might be just me but I really hate quitting. Many people think "better let a hundred guilty person go rather than accusing an innocent one" and I understand and respect that idea. However, "if the detective gives up, the case will still be a mystery" is exactly what I always think. When you're down to two suspects, you're only this close to catching the murderer and deliver justice.

Of course, wrong accusation is always a severe, and maybe unforgivable, mistake. However,it's not like we're conducting an extrajuridical execution here. In that case, a wrong accusation means an innocent life lost. Even in a juridical system, wrong accusation leads to imprisonment (at worst, death.) However, we're private detectives; we can only accuse people and make them confess. If you accuse a wrong person, you're the one who'll be punished, not the accused. Okay, they might lose some credit, however, in the end it's the accuser who really lose - both his respect and money, and probably his career as a private detective.

Since justice is served when I guess right, and only one person (me) is punished when I guess wrong, that's why I usually take risks.

Another reason, although less noble and morally unrelated, is that I'm not subscribing. Every case is important to me to earn me a favor, which results in a gift more valueable than a day's jobs combined, or more importantly a contact. That's why I rarely quit - only when there are more than two suspects and I can't decide who is more likely to be a murderer.

Of course, as the shady's price grows, I may have to stop doing this...

May-9-2005 11:09

By the way, on the earlier post I miscalculated the odds a bit. Actually the chance for wrong physical evidence in a 3-physical-evidence case is 2/3 (since only one evidence is right - no two evidences ever point to the same suspect, and so only one evidence point to the real murderer.) The chance for wrong physical evidence is HIGHER when there're more evidences (3/4, 4/5, and so on.)

So, on the earlier case, the chance that the only evidence for the male suspect might be WRONG is 2/3. The chance that two evidences for the female suspect might be WRONG is 2/9 (ironically, I got it right the first time.) Although I miscalculate the male odds so it went lower than the actual number, his odds to be INNOCENT is still better than the female one, due to the fact that everyone never suspected him (they clammed.)

So, although with calculated risks, I still accused the wrong suspect. I failed to take into account that only ONE person accused the female suspect and others didn't - it should hint that she was innocent after all.

May-9-2005 11:17

[Hear Dogberta's voice coming from the distance: "I told you so!"]

Oh, and good luck on that too, cfm. You'll really need it.