Sleuth Home - Message Boards - Sleuth Talk


0 0
Factions and Townies??
  <<First Page  |  <Previous Next>  |  Last Page>>  

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

Mar-28-2012 08:38

Now... This may sound ridiculous, but I think the shoemaker in New York works for OOS!

And if you are positive with the OOS, you can easily get him as your contact.

And if you are positive with DAB, you easily get the priest. You know I strongly doubted this before, I even implicitly asked about it when I was raci, but I was told it was all random.

I think it's not all that random! My new subscribed detective Cingöt got the shoemaker again, after Eden, and he was OOS+ too. (sounds as if he were hiv+ creepy, lol)

Raci was DAB+, got the priest 3 times (following deliberate fa's to lose him - the priest)

The butcher in NY, I believe is connected to either the OOS oR LCN.

(I am thinking Oos)

Anyone to second this hunch?



Replies

cfm
cfm
Nomad

Mar-28-2012 14:28

Your posed question made me think of this: http://muller.lbl.gov/teaching/physics10/old%20physics%2010/chapters%20(old)/4-Randomness.htm


Lady Jas
Lady Jas
The Chosen One

Mar-28-2012 15:59

I think somewhere way back when Chronestrian was still active, there was a debate on the boards about this very subject.

Not sure whether it was in here or in Sleuth Talk, but the debate was fascinating :)

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

Mar-28-2012 16:15

@cfm:

Well I was going to mention something related to that. Now it's time I guess:


Priest x 3 is not a case of selective perception. It is something weird, when compared with respect to a pool of possibilities that consists of its set of negation. I am not overly confident or anything but this is what I come up with:

1) If the event is "having priest as your contact", and if we simply say that there are 10 townies,

then 3 times of this event taking place successively would mean:

(1/10)^3 = 0.001

What is "non-3 times priest" makes up for the 0.999 making the probability 1.

Among this 0.999 chance is:

* 2 priests, 1 other townie:

(3C2)(1/10)(9/10)(9/10) = 0.243

* 1 priest, 2 other townies:

(3C1)(1/10)(1/10)(9/10) = 0.027

* no priest
(9/10)^3 = 0.729

0.001+0.243+0.027+0.729 = 1

These are independent events, so normally, my having three priests in a row is no different than having 3 different contacts each time. But I am not a believer of miracles and that's not what I am saying either.


This event is not any different than picking 3 balls out of a bag full of balls with different colors (with replacement after each pick)

But, picking the same ball three times is a very low chance wrt not picking it.

You see, I wasn't talking about picking a specific contact that's not just the priest.

I was comparing pX3 to what's "non pX3".

It was even weirder, when I had done all those favors, sometimes repeatedly with the same twonie, to see that they would not become my contacts but the priest would, after 1 take. (imagine doing this 3 times by getting retired 2 times)





Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

Mar-28-2012 16:33

2) Computers CANNOT generate random values. Sorry for the capital letters, I thought it needed emphasis.

I am not a computer geek either, but this is what I know -and the great geek we have who happens to be Ben, if he has time, can confirm/refute this:

To pick something and not the other is itself a formula. The computer generates a huge, large set of values to pick from but it creates this set according to an algorithm.

Think about it. The coder is human, and needs to make a specification for something that is supposed to be random - because the computer memory is limited wrt to infinity.

What he'll do is write an algorithm for the picking process itself. What makes it close to random is the largeness of the set from among which it is to pick a value, so that the recurrence of values is decreased. So that you don't get to pick the same values always.

So the "kind" of randomness in which 0.001 chance of picking something occurs - it's the only outcome among a thousand events, not say 5 out of 5000 as the 0.001 ratio could otherwise suggest) deliberately achieve.

So it, I think, could only be an unwanted but inevitable pattern.

I don't know, maybe some expert would come and say "0.001 is a very large number wrt to any pool of numbers that were specifically assigned to create the pseudo-random effect anyway". I really don't know, but this is what I think.


ThePumpkinKing
ThePumpkinKing
Tome Raider

Mar-28-2012 16:39

Seems you've done most of your homework when calculating the chances for getting the priest as a contact, but you've used the wrong numbers. Remember getting the priest as a contact isn't a probability of 1/10, but 1/6. Still very hard to manage three times in a row, though...

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

Mar-28-2012 16:42

*correction: "cannot really be deliberately achieved" so I mean to say, there is either a pattern or some rule to the game I don't know, which I'll admit is wishful thinking. Sort of. I2ve had my share of absurdities to start to think this way, though*

@Jas: Thank you very much for the info. I found it:

http://noir.playsleuth.com/map/cityhall/post.spy?id=16108&first_record=135939

The guy had it all figured out.

Now I wonder how he found out about the specifics of faction-townie matching. Trial and error sure is the hard way. I hope it's not the only way but Chronestrian has retired.

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

This reply has been deleted by a Moderator

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

This reply has been deleted by a Moderator

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

This reply has been deleted by a Moderator

Eden Zweig
Eden Zweig
Nomad

Mar-28-2012 17:25

-I wish we had some text editor here, I hate having to correct myself. PM'ed Jas to delete some of my posts.

I somehow got confused as to the number of total townies. pe/we= 4/6 in NY right? so it's (1/4)(1/6) = 1/24.

Still in my situation it is 1/10. Because I never got to have the second contact and one can have a contact of either type.



  <<First Page  |  <Previous Next>  |  Last Page>>  

[ You must login to reply ]