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No. of suspects on Intermediate?
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naud
naud

Mar-27-2007 17:24

Hi all,
i must admit that after searching in the forums and some community sites, i was a bit surprised to see that there is no clear indication of what the ratio of people, evidence, suspects is for each mystery level.
For the Intermediate level, most sources indicate (6-7 ppl / 2 ev / 3 susp).
Some sources only give 7 ppl, but i had 6 too, so the 6-7 ppl indication seems correct.
I just had a 'favor' case (intermediate) where i found 7 ppl. 3 had valid alibies, 3 had NO aliby. I did not check the 4th, based on the assumption that there can be only 3 suspects at this level.
In the end, there was no PE matching any of my 3 suspects ! (yes, i was able to check them all)

Assuming only 2 possible evidence, which i found, the possible explanations I see:
1. the intermediate level can have 4 suspects. Note: a certain xls helper gives (6-7 ppl / 2 ev / 2-4 susp) 2-4 would be crazy, very little info from it.
2. the intermediate level favors deviate from the general (6-7/2/3) rule
3. it is possible for a killer to have no associated PE (?)

Thanks for any comments and a link to a good source of info ;)
naud

Replies

Zanjana
Zanjana
Washed Up Punter

Mar-27-2007 22:25

I may get hit with the mod spoon here, but I'll give it a go anyway...

The best explanation I can come up with for your situation is that you didn't actually uncover all of the available PE in the case. I think at the intermediate level there can be two or three pieces of physical evidence. The killer will ALWAYS have a piece of physical evidence that points to him/her.

Intermediate and Hard level cases have a slightly different formula of possibilities than other levels. I don't want to say too much here, but if you need more info on the formulas for the levels, please feel free to send me a PM.

Ру??кий галлон
Ру??кий галлон

Mar-27-2007 23:20

From my limited experience, my intermediate cases have only had 2 pieces of evidence. I have, however, had both 3 and 4 suspects (and I checked all of their alibis so I know this to be the case), so my guess is that in that particular case, you had 4 suspects.

Serges
Serges
Vigilante

Mar-27-2007 23:41

The number of suspects with bad alibis is constant for each case level; the number of PE and suspects with valid alibis can vary +-1.

For example, there are 3 possible iterations for an Incredibly Hard case:

8 suspects, 3 pieces of evidence, 3 valid alibis (leaving 5 bad alibis)
8 suspects, 4 pieces of evidence, 3 valid alibis (leaving 5 bad alibis)
9 suspects, 4 pieces of evidence, 4 valid alibis (leaving 5 bad alibis)

Now, its been ages since I've done an intermediate case, but I know in easies you can have 5 or 6 suspects, 3 of which having bad alibis, and 2 pieces of PE. I honestly dont remember the variable data on an intermediate case, I'm sorry. But just you are are clear, the number of suspects with BAD alibis is CONSTANT for each case level.

Based on your experience, it follows that either intermediate cases can have a 3rd piece of PE, or that all intermediate cases have 4 suspects. Since I don't believe the latter is true offhand, I'll say that its very possible you just missed a piece of physical evidence. Do you have hair analysis AND thread analysis? If so, then I'm not sure what happened. If not, I bet you missed a hair or thread.

Serges
Serges
Vigilante

Mar-27-2007 23:43

P.S. If I'm actually wrong about that constant bad alibi thing for some case levels, PLEASE correct me accordingly... these days it's just easies, IHs, and AIs for me... :)

Zanjana
Zanjana
Washed Up Punter

Mar-27-2007 23:48

Oh! Research messed me up! I forgot that my formulas assume one bad alibi eliminated because of research. That means Intermediate cases always have FOUR suspects with bad alibis.

Serges, by my records, Intermediate and Hard cases can have either 3 or 4 suspects with bad alibis, the only two levels where that is the case. For all other levels, the number is constant.

reda
reda
Well-Connected

Mar-28-2007 01:43

Serges, you are right :) The number of suspects is X or X+1 the number of fakes is constant (but one will be revealed by research).

Naud, the numbers are known for great number of people. The reason you couldnt find a complete list on the boards is that Ben have asked not to post it. Some might want to discover this by themselves, so giving it away might be a spoiler.
Still... there is a list. I know many people have my list :P So if you want it, just PM me and Ill send it to you.

Breitkat
Breitkat
Thespian

Mar-28-2007 01:43

Most of the time, the numbers you'll find on the helper forms are accurate. Some of them DO take the research skill into account, some DON'T.

Technically, Naud, your helper is valid, because it's accounting for both instances. In an intermediate case, there are always a minimum of three suspects with a false/no alibi. If you've got research, this knocks that down to two--ergo, the smaller number. The highest number of false/no alibis I've ever seen on an intermediate case is four, which, if you don't have research, means you've got four suspects to check.

The higher up the levels you go, the more accurate the helpers tend to be. Incredibly hard stats NEVER vary from what Serges has. This, I think, is because the majority of the Sleuth community has them for their favor cases, and therefore, the stats are basically cemented (remember again, having research can alter your individual numbers +/-1, to a max. of 5 false suspects).

As for evidence, the numbers increase to three pieces per case starting at the hard level. I've never run across an easy or intermediate case with three pieces of evidence, only two.

In the case you provided, unless you had the Research skill, which would let you eliminate the fourth suspect as a false alibi, but wouldn't match any of the evidence, you couldn't rule him out. Technically, he was still a viable suspect unless you got a verified real alibi from a townsperson, or research eliminated him.

Regardless of what case you're working on, at what level, with however many gabillion suspects and evidence you have, the killer WILL ALWAYS BE THE ONLY ONE with a false/no alibi, one piece of evidence that matches to him, and two w/e statements against him. No other suspect in a case will have those criteria. Those elements are ALWAYS there in every case. Whether or not you can actually find all of them is another story....;-)

reda
reda
Well-Connected

Mar-28-2007 01:45

Oh almost forgot:

If you have the basic hair and thread skills, you will always find all the evidence available. It might not be specified, you need advanced skills, smart outfit and luck for that :) but it will be there.
If you dont have basic hair and thread, you can assume that you wont find all the evidence in all cases.

reda
reda
Well-Connected

Mar-28-2007 01:49

and about the helper....

The watson helper is correct about numbers. It also let's you take research into considaration. From what I know, Naomi's helper is not always correct about the numbers. I think it was created before some changes were made. So I wouldnt trust the numbers you get there.
There is also a third (new) helper around. I didnt check that, so Im not sure how correct it is. But Watson is deffinatly good to use.

naud
naud

Mar-28-2007 06:01

Quote reda: 'the killer WILL ALWAYS BE THE ONLY ONE with a false/no alibi, one piece of evidence that matches to him, and two w/e statements against him'

Most sources give the formula: PE + fake/no alibi = guilty

What you say, reda, is a bit less specific. For example, your sentence does not exclude the following case:
Suspect 1: no alibi, PE
Suspect 2: no alibi, PE, 2xWE
If such a case were possible, then Suspect 2 is the killer, but this would contradict the above-mentioned rule.

I will try to summarize what I believe to be true, and ask the more Sleuth-savyy people for confirmation:
1. The Killer has one and only one PE against him.
2. From the complete list of people with fake/no alibi, one and only one (the killer) matches a PE.
3. From the complete list of people with fake/no alibi, for a given WE, only one person (the killer) can match it.

Please note that i formulated my remarks carefully regarding the mathematics logic, so I mostly invite those people to answer, that believe the following sentence to be true:
'If 2+2=5 then a kangaroo is a mamal.'

hehe... joking :)
I'll appreciate any feedback,
naud

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